There are many situations in physics where rare events occur at the frequency that is calculated. The landmark Reactor Safety Study, which calculated rare, hopefully very rare, events of a nuclear power accident was chaired by a physicist. Physicists have consistently urged application of the techniques throughout society. The techniques of that study - using event trees and fault trees - have been extended to chemical refineries, LNG facilities and more recently NASA. The studies enabled a much clearer understanding of the safety of each technology. The studies included attention to high-consequence, low-probability events and those situations - fire, flood and sabotage that can dramatically increase the probability. I will discuss how attention to these scenarios can enable us to focus on real, rather than imagined, risks of sabotage, now called terrorism, and to be prepared to combat them.
Coffee and cookies before the presentation at 3:15 pm, and refreshments after the presentation will both be served in Room 128.